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Iraq Quagmire

Written by Akonitum

Sunday, 15 April 2007

Posted comment to Matthew Yglesias' blog:

Unfortunately, the Iraq quagmire is bigger than Iraq.

Staying in, we inflame the civil war, further erode U.S. standing, and invite regional war.

Withdrawing from Iraq, we create a vacuum that sucks in Turkey, Iran, Syria, and degenerates into regional war.

Israel and its US-Israeli lobby wants close U.S. military presence, and the neocon wing with support by apocalyptic Christians wants aggression against Iran, which could happen soon with the effect of eclipsing this entire conversation. The new military base complex in Iraq wasn't built with short-term withdrawal in mind.

Meanwhile, the global economy absolutely depends on continued flow of Middle East oil and natural gas. This in a world where Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and U.A.E. sit on what have been widely accepted as the world's largest proven oil reserves and huge natural gas reserves; in a world in which global conventional oil production has begun decline; a world in which U.S. oil production has been declining since 1971, and in which North American natural gas production is in decline; a world in which competition and growing demand for oil and natural gas is unprecedented.

In other words, in a world in which global primary energy flow (oil and natural gas) is on the verge of precipitous production decline (read petroleum geologists at theoildrum.com).

Primary energy flow directly affects the global/North American/US economy, which already appears incredibly unstable: collapsing value of US$; exploding trade deficit; unsustainable annual health care cost increases in the range of 12-18% per year; exploding unfunded pension system liabilities; home mortgage building bubble; aging workforce demographic; aging electrical utility grid; aging and inadequate natural gas pipeline system; industrial capacity decline; waning environmental protections....

On top of that, we have global warming to induce natural disasters of more intensity and higher frequency than what we've seen. The natural global economic buffer, i.e., ability to absorb catastrophic setbacks is becoming thin. The global economic web is stretched with high tensions everywhere.

Meanwhile, our corporations seek and expect growth at 18% discount rates; and our people push indiscriminate exponential growth at every scale. Corruption becomes the systemic antidote to impossible expectations.

The larger picture becomes so absurd, one has to laugh!

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